We’ve said for a while that the beauty of prediction markets is the ability to take a position on almost anything. Today, we present to you one of the more obscure — but intriguing — markets we’ve seen:

What Will Sarah Jessica Parker say during her Northwestern Commencement ceremony?

This all goes down on June 14, so there’s about a week and a half for these numbers to move significantly from the $238 in there so far:

Parker hasn’t spoken at a lot of commencements — her last high-profile speech looks like an address at Harvard Law in 2016. In that speech she mentioned one of the Kalshi terms — “President” — and did so while referring to Salvo Arena, the President of Harvard Law’s NY Chapter. Since this market isn’t looking for the exact phrasing of “President Trump,” and the rules seem to agree that she can just say “President” and we have a winner — I’m buying. Northwestern has an Interim President and an incoming President. I have to assume the rise in that market is people also figuring out that greeting the ruler of a university in her opening will resolve to YES.

As for the rest of the terms? Sarah Jessica Parker isn’t really super-political in public. Her 2016 Harvard speech was sweet and saccharine and a little corny. It was heavy on the arts-iness of it all. Stay individual, be curious, dream — that sort of stuff. Granted, Trump hadn’t won the presidency yet; in May 2026, this is what the landscape looked like:

…but you still have to think Parker won’t go into too much politics. It’s not her thing. But there are some other interesting options:

“AI” (55¢) — YES. Especially with the recent spate of speakers getting booed for mentioning it, she is the type to make a referential joke. as an artist, she may even go deeper and rail against it, in a “defeat AI” section,

“Carrie” (56¢) — YES. In the Harvard speech she referenced Jo Ann Harris, the lawyer she played in the early 90s series “Equal Justice.” With the resurgent popularity of Sex and the City thanks to its run on Netflix (and with it my old podcast partner Ian Kahn aka “the Tweety Bird Tattoo guy”) these 21-22 year-olds know her as Carrie. I don’t think she’ll mention the entire show’s name, but some kind of reference to her character seems more likely than a 50/50 shot.

“Wine” (26¢) — YES. I’m not as sold on this as the rest, but if you’re mentioning Carrie and doing a reference, I think she wanders into “raise a glass of wine” or “I like to read a book with a good glass of wine” if she goes the anti-AI route. This price might dip as the market gets bigger, so I’m leaving it right now… but watching.

One thing I think Kalshi missed that would have made this a fun speech to stream are more Chicago references. Her husband, Matthew Broderick, became a superstar as Ferris Bueller — whose day off happened throughout Chicago (where Northwestern is located, basically). I could see several possibilities (“I AM married to the sausage king of Chicago, after all” for instance) throughout the speech. But what fun will it be now to look for those if we can’t make $17 off of it??

That concludes our Sarah Jessica Parker portion of this newsletter. On to…

Yes, we bring up the Tomatometer a lot here. And yes, we were very wrong about The Mandalorian and Grogu’s score — I thought it had a shot at 90+… it has a 62. Crushing, Jon Favreau!

Scary Movie comes out on Friday. This is what the Tomatometer market looks like:

The original movie got a 52. Scary Movie 2 got a 13. Part 3 got a 36. Part 4 got a 34. Part V got a 4. It’s not pretty after the first one. BUT the first four all came out within six years of each other. Part V was in 2013 and had no Wayans influence at all — it was written by David Zucker and Pat Proft — the guys who made Airplane and BASEketball.

Parts 3 and 4 also feature an early-career Kevin Hart and Anthony Anderson as Mahalik in some of the best “paradox” scenes in the last 25 years. Anderson is back for this movie. And so are a bunch of the Wayanses, Anna Faris, Jon Abraham, Lochlyn Munro, Chris Elliott, and Dave Sheridan as “Doofy.”

But here’s the best part:

This is a Wayans Brothers Family movie. Keenen Ivory Wayans hasn’t done any significant writing since 2009’s Dance Flick. That’s 17 years of pent-up jokes and scenes. The earlier sequels tanked because they were churned out and then passed off to people who shouldn’t have done them. This should hew closer to the original.

And since the original was at 50+ I feel okay going with a “ladder” type run at 40+ (25¢) and 45+ (20¢). I think the nostalgia and the callback jokes will register with the Tomatometer-contributing critics. I don’t think this will be a flat-out bomb, which it’s tracking at with a predicted 31.8 by Kalshi. Have faith in Keenen Ivory Wayans!! He’s back!!!!

The 7 Oracles (there are five of us, technically, at the moment) have a group text, and lately it has been DOMINATED by Benny’s Bitcoin EDGE tool. I can’t explain it as well as he can but basically Benny found a way to pull in big giant options trader data that moves faster than the Kalshi market traders, which allows you to wager on the price of Bitcoin every hour. The market resets itself every hour and you start it all over again and by 11:58am you’re cheering for it to drop below $66,400 because you have “NO” because the tool had high confidence it would be there. And more often than not, it’s right.

Fast forward to the 9-minute mark here for an explanation from Benny, as we were live on Monday and did the sweat in real time.

I know nothing of ETFs or derivatives or anything that Benny talks about when he explains the tools… but it’s fun. And it works. And you may enjoy it, too. I’m having him turn it to free but if you want a run of the site, the code THE7ORACLES is still live and is basically for the people reading this to check everything out for free. You’re on the frontier with us! Hit us up if it doesn’t work!

Good luck! May Scary Movie be a critical hit!!