Buried deep within Kalshi is a relatively small “Will Sadie Sink be the next Jean Grey?” market. Its total volume is $16,982 (just for comparison’s sake, “Who will be on the cover of Madden 27?” is already at $299,000+). But it’s gone on a crazy ride the last 24 hours. And it’s kind of a perfect example of why The 7 Oracles exist — mainly… because this is a fun game to play. We don’t care about some random guy who made $250k trading off his scraped API and meticulously placing bets where there was some kind of edge. We care about The Next Jean Grey and how we can investigate clues and speculation to make this all a little bit more enjoyable for everyone.

Forget about insider trading and prior knowledge for a moment. And just revel in the story this chart tells:

What happened overnight? Bits and pieces of the next Spider-Man trailer were released in tiny clips and a hooded figured, thought to be Sink’s character, was seen for a couple seconds:

And then today (March 18), the full trailer dropped:

There are very strong undertones — which I guess means these are just plain overtones — of “mutants”: Bruce Banner explaining that Peter Parker is mutating, there’s apparent mind-jumping from the woman in the tank to the soldiers, and Jean Grey (aka The Phoenix) could possibly be getting Easter Egg’d by a line at the end of the trailer where Parker is being told that “it amounts to a kind of…rebirth.”

It’s all pretty obvious, at least to this $17,000 market, that Sadie Sink, who is still “TBD” as far as her character, will be Jean Grey. And since we love the fine print here, there don’t seem to be any weird, alarming loopholes:

But here’s the fun part. In fact, here are all the fun parts:

1. We can finally monetize our love and knowledge of pop culture and comic book canon — and Easter Egg hunting — with a market like this. No longer are we trapped by the rules of legal sportsbooks (who barely feature pop culture or politics) or offshore books (who are generally just shady and hard to withdraw from). The floodgates are opened to take our hobbies and pop culture knowledge and put a small wager on if our logic is correct.

2. When the clips were coming out late last night and it appeared Sink wasn’t involved as a blatant Jean Grey, I got this email from Kalshi alerting me to the price change (I put $5 on “No” weeks ago):

I ran to the site and cashed out. Granted, it was a very small cash-out (it would’ve been a small resolution, too, but whatever), as I remain a steadfast “bird in hand” market-eer. But this is what makes this more of an “experience” — I was up, I got the email, the price was right for me to get out, and so I did. Regular betting sometimes features the “cash out” option but it’s just as often unavailable as it is available. Here, it’s an alive, organic, intrinsic piece of it all.

This is the ethos of the markets; I knew a full trailer was coming in the morning, I had a feeling something would be more obvious, the price worked for me, and I got out. And after the trailer dropped this morning it shot all the way up to 91% “Yes” and the “No” stocks were down to 8¢. BOOYAKASHA.

3. When you find the smaller markets like this, you feel way better about playing in THAT sandbox than you do in the $200,000 "Who will be eliminated from Survivor tonight” one, which has Mike White at 97% “yes” to be eliminated.

And here it is on Polymarket, where it’s only a $30,000 market but he’s trading at 99%:

I’m not going to pretend like I don’t have the time to hunt down rumors and speculation on reddit and Survivor Sucks; I do. I just don’t want to. I’m artificially building a spoiler sphere around me for this show because a) I enjoy it, and b) once I see a normal market for it, I want to be fully immersed and able to jump in, as opposed to having relied on spoilers and now needing to catch up once things stop being so lopsided.

Also, if there’s a double elimination tonight, or Mike White doesn’t go home, this will teach us something, which is far more valuable than dropping $20 on Charlie because he was an early favorite when the market opened. If Mike White DOES go home, it’s reinforcing the idea that we should stay away from these lopsided/obvious markets, which just makes us better as we roll along into generally uncharted territory here.

We’ll learn something tonight… but sometimes it’s just fun to watch and learn.

And cash out early.