The 51st season of Saturday Night Live will be over on May 16 — meaning we have two months and about six episodes left (if you follow the 20 episode estimate given before the season).

Kalshi has a relatively small market ($255,110 volume) on host speculation for the rest of the year. And I keep going back to it — and the list of March-to-May hosts since 2021 — trying to divine some long-shot answers from it.

NOW, yes, I do think that a bunch of NBC interns can run the table on this with advance knowledge of long-shot hosts. But I also think it’s kind of fun to ignore that angle and just speculate on how SNL historically ends their seasons. So that’s what we’re going with.

Also, important note: my SNL fanboy-dom ended when I was about 15. There wasn’t any moment. I wasn’t crying that “it’s terrible now” or anything; it just faded. So I am coming into this objectively and looking at data points that we should all find interesting.

Let’s ride.

The first place I’m looking is Dominic Fike at 17¢.

His eight-year-old song, “Babydoll” is trending and charting on Spotify because he released a music video for it. The catch here is Harry Styles is hosting on March 14 and that fulfills the “host/musical guest” combo they usually run out once in the last few weeks. However, in 2025 they had Jack Black/Tenacious D and Lady Gaga. In 2024 it was just Dua Lipa. In 2023 they didn’t do it, and in 2022 they had Lizzo host and be the musical guest… while Selena Gomez, in the same spring run, had Post Malone as her musical guest. So there isn’t really a pattern, but with Harry Styles taking one of these spots, my hunch is we see Fike as a musical guest (and maybe a cameo on the Sydney Sweeney figurative episode I concoct below) — but not the host.

One thing in the 2022-2025 data that pops up is a host who gets buzzy around the Oscars. I would put money on Amy Madigan or or Jessie Buckley… but there are no markets for them. In fact, the only market for someone Oscars-related is Timothée Chalamet at 24¢. And while he feels pretty slam dunk-ey, he’s also hosted twice in the last three years. That’s a lot. It’s not impossible, but he’s also got that red “down 5% arrow, so it feels like someone knows something.

One recurring trend in the “March to May” run the last few years is a returning cast member. Maya Rudolph (twice), Pete Davidson, Molly Shannon, and Kristen Wiig have all hosted in the spring since 2022. Will Ferrell is currently 88%, so we’re just going to ignore that one and scroll down to Sarah Silverman at 26¢. She doesn’t have any movies coming out, her last comedy special was launched in 2024, and she isn’t on tour. And this weirdly may work in her favor, as Silverman wouldn’t be doing a quick cameo on the Weekend Update desk to promote something; she could just… host. So I like this one. It’s quirky, too, based on her having been with SNL for just one year and not hosting the show since 2014.

There’s also Sydney Sweeney at 16¢. This one is my favorite.

If you think Sarah Silverman has been buzzing a little lately:

Look what happens when you compare her to Sydney Sweeney:

Euphoria’s third season premieres on April 12, right in the middle of the final stretch of 2025-26 episodes. That’s going to have major press. And, sure, complicating things a little is Zendaya sitting at 46¢. But here’s a tidbit to consider: Zendaya has never hosted. Sweeney last hosted in March 2024. And if you go back through the data since 2021, repeat hosts tend to come back around the two-to-three year mark:

So to summarize all of this… I’m going yes on Sweeney for $20 and yes on Silverman for a relatively low-ish $10. If some more Oscar nominee markets open before the show — the data favors their archetypes and they’ll probably come in relatively low at first — I’m all over them.

****

Before we jump off today, I want to bring some attention to a random market I found on Polymarket: Oscars Bingo:

It’s a fairly easy “yes”/”no” proposition — right now, yes is at 62% and no is at 41%, so if you’re hunting for upsets, going with “no” may be the move.

Yes, this is likely a sucker bet no matter which way you slice it, but… it will heighten your Oscars-watching experience. Again, big dumb fun, but if you go with “no,” you probably shake out on the better side of what they hoped would be a 50/50 shot.

****

Until next time, friends! Enjoy your days!