Up until Wednesday afternoon, I was blissfully unaware of the impending iceberg that is Scream 7.

And then I saw this confusing tweet:

And I started to dig.

In November of 2023, Melissa Barrera was fired from the film for Israel-Gaza posts. Right after that, Jenna Ortega left (she later cited the Barrera firing as the reason for it). Around the same time, the directors left. Two sets of directors, actually. Forget about politics for a moment (we’ll get back to that, though) — this is the sure sign of a mess.

Kevin Williamson, who wrote the original Scream, was brought on as the new director… something he has only done once before, in 1999. And while the franchise has enjoyed a great Rotten Tomatoes run lately:

… Scream 3 and 4 weren’t exactly heaters. Plus, almost everyone who left had a hand in making Scream 5 and 6.

Which brings us to Kalshi’s “Scream 7” Rotten Tomatoes score? market.

Before we get deeper into this, I want to issue an IMPORTANT UPDATE: This was written on Wednesday. The movie premiered last night and the market has already changed. Significantly! It’s sitting at 48% on Rotten Tomatoes at the moment. Heres what it looked like at 4pm ET on Wednesday:

And here’s what it looks like at 10am ET Thursday:

It is getting destroyed. And obviously the 7 Oracles were on it. Old stuff in italics! New stuff in… non-italics.

There are about a billion factors to consider here, including — and this may be more significant than we realize — possible bias by the reviewers, who may feel solidarity with Barrera and Ortega and could bake that into their takes. Rage reviewing, if you will.

The problem here is that the Kalshi prices are likely already reflective of that. And so to make any kind of real longshot splash on fading the score, you’d have to say it’ll be below a 50. But here’s the issue: Rotten Tomatoes is binary — the movie gets a “good” review or a “bad” review. A bunch of 3/5 stars could push a movie up higher than it actually is.

And so deep dive on the Tomatometer, we must.

Of all the explanations we saw, this video was the best. It says that if a review seems right in the middle, they reach out to the reviewer for clarification (or the staff will vote on it). So there is a human element if a review seems wishy-washy. And a reviewer being directly questioned “did you like this” when put on the spot might shrug and say “not reallllly.”

But this still doesn’t help us a ton because it brings us back to a totally unknown quantity — will this movie be good enough to get the “good” designation? It could end up with a 45 on imdb but a 70 on Rotten Tomatoes because of the Tomatometer rating system. And since critics probably aren’t thinking “I need to give this a bad enough review to keep it from being ‘fresh' on Rotten Tomatoes” and instead could just give it “forgettable but fine whatever” — catapulting it into “above 60” territory…

My worries yesterday stemmed from the issues a movie like Solo had, where it switched directors and shifted the entire tone, and still got a 69 on the Tomatometer. But I should’ve gone in on the “under 50” with more gusto — a second-time director helming a movie swirling with controversy that was rewritten two or more times after its main characters exited? Plus we’re not really sure we needed to go back to the well for this franchise, which reinvented itself and then just kind of re-re-invented itself and went nostalgic with Neve Campbell back.

And so now we wait and see just how bad it will get for Scream 7. Under 45? Under 40? Lesson learned: sometimes, when you plunge the depths of the Tomatometer, you need to trust your gut.

We haven’t done a lot of sports here in the newsletter, and that’s because we’re sitting between NFL and MLB seasons. With spring training underway, it’s time to start poking around. And one team our gut likes? The Baltimore Orioles.

Remember, with prediction markets, you can sell your holdings at almost any time. So for us to be “right” on something, we really just want to be able to sell at a price higher than we bought. Which got us to the Orioles to win the American League. The current price? 7¢.

All the Orioles need to do is get in the playoffs, and then anything can happen. And this is a team that had 101 wins in 2023 and 91 wins in 2024.

Seattle and Toronto are great stories, and while Toronto reloaded, the Mariners lost Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suarez. The Yankees are uninspiring, the Tigers are fine, and the Red Sox have lost their razzle dazzle. But the Orioles can regain that 2023/24 form with new additions Pete Alonso, Shane Baz (who could be an absolute stud), and Taylor Ward. Plus they have replacements banging on the door from the minors.

At 7¢ I can buy $50 worth and sell when they’re leading the AL East in July. Maybe it’s 50¢ by then. I am not a greedy man, I just like to profit off these gifts I have been given.

And if the 2025 version shows up? They still won 76 games with a decimated team. And they just have to get in to make some noise. A couple late-season trades for a playoff run? By then it’ll be too late to get in on the O’s.

Alright, friends! That is it for today. We shall cross paths again soon! Until next time!