You may remember, about a week ago, Gene Clemons and Chris James did a “Fade the Field” NFL show and highlighted the “Maxx Crosby Next Team” market. Their advice? Buy shares of “stays with Raiders.”

The next day, Crosby was traded to Baltimore. Or, technically, a trade was agreed to that would send Maxx Crosby to Baltimore. And then two days later, the trade was off. Crosby celebrated with a tweet announcing, “I’m a Raider.”

Here’s the “Baltimore” roller coaster:

And here is the $1.9 million (and going up) market, in all its glory:

You may be wondering why the “stays with Las Vegas or Retires” option isn’t at 99% — or how the market hasn’t resolved yet. It’s because of The Small Print. And The Small Print has been in the news a lot lately, thanks to Iran war markets (Dustin Gouker outlined it all wonderfully here).

The Crosby market, according to Kalshi, “will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Nov 30, 2026 at 11:59pm EST.” This means that if Crosby is traded to a “next team,” the market will close. If he retires, it closes. But if you think he stays with Vegas, you are buying him staying there until Nov. 30. Which means no more offseason trades, no Draft Day shocker, and no in-season trade… until December. This is a 262-day futures market, essentially, and you’re punting $20 into late autumn 2026 just to MAYBE win $30 of Christmas spending money.

The flip side to this is, obviously, the “no” on “stays with Las Vegas or Retires,” where $20 will get you $61, $50 (this moved wildly in 12 hours between writing and final editing) and that could resolve tomorrow if he’s traded and it becomes official. Here’s how it looked last night:

Despite Crosby’s enthusiastic tweets, this seems to be the more likely outcome. There are rumors and reports that he won’t be traded…but do we really believe those? And even if that’s the case now, how about in June… or September… or early November when the Raiders are 2-6 and realize they should’ve maybe gotten more WR help for their rookie QB? That’s all in play here for Crosby’s future.

So instead of guessing his next team (Dolphins? Giants?) and spreading money around to 1% options, we’re just going straight for the “no” option on the Raiders and giving ourselves 250+ days for the most realistic outcome to manifest itself. People not reading the fine print may not realize this is far from a slam dunk (but it looks like they are starting to).

With prediction markets being a relatively new thing, there’s nothing wrong with “sitting this one out” to see how they behave — and that’s exactly what I’m doing with the Oscars. Sort of. Because:

But I will say this — watching Survivor knowing I have an investment in Ozzy shares, and watching him go to Tribal Council over and over… it heightens the suspense and watching experience. I might just put $10 on some random stuff — underdogs, “no” on Sinners for Best Casting, maybe a Zootopia 2 longshot for Best Animated Film — just to heighten my emotions. I’ll be largely sitting it out from a “significant investment” POV, but this does add a lot of fun to it all.

One thing I am very much looking forward to in the next week are the March Madness markets. I love brackets, I love Cinderellas, and I think prediction markets — especially for something like “Making the Elite 8” (which I am assuming will exist) — are going to add a level of nuance to the games that we previously haven’t seen.

There is a world of a difference between opening your DraftKings app and betting on an underdog to make it to the Elite 8 vs. opening Fanatics Markets and buying shares of an underdog to make the Elite 8, and then being able to sell that share for a 3x return on your money after they get into the Sweet 16. It’s a very alive, organic thing, and it changes your timelines and the way you look at things.

Do I have any early bets? No, absolutely not yet. But I do believe our good friend Gene Clemons has something cooking for Selection Sunday.

Until next time, friends! Have fun with your prognostication!!