If you are a basketball fan, is there a better time than right now? The NCAA men’s and women’s tournaments are into the Sweet 16 and we’ve already seen a fair amount of carnage. Plus, the NBA is into the final stretch of their marathon regular season as teams position for the playoffs AND the WNBA solved theior labor problems and we’ll have a full season (along with feeling good about their new elevated salaries).

Ladies and Gentlemen welcome to HOOPERPALOOZA!

The first week of the men’s NCAA Tournament had real drama that shook up the brackets and made people think differently about the teams that have a chance to win it all.

Duke was taken all the way to the brink of defeat by a low-level mid-major team, which showed that they are vulnerable as a number one seed.

The University of Florida was defeated and now has opened up that side of the bracket. A team like Houston, who is my dark horse to win the title, is a very responsible 2.14x to make the Final Four, and they have risen to 8.55x (currently 11% on Kalshi) to win the championship.

This is still excellent value for a team that’s had the road cleared by the number one Gators being ousted earlier than expected.

During the tournament, there is a saying that I’ve had for many years, and that’s…

Tom Izzo and his Michigan State Spartans always seem to find their way into week two of the tournament. This season, because of their difficult out-of-conference scheduling — which mirrors their difficult Big Ten season — they are probably the most battle-tested team in the tournament. And now they will have to take on an extremely tough and feisty UConn team in the Sweet 16. If Duke gets out of their rock fight against St. John’s, they’ll meet in the Elite Eight for the right to go to the Final Four.

When Michigan State took on Duke earlier in the season, it was a 66-60 win for the Blue Devils… but Michigan State played them tough and proved that they had a chance to win that game.

This time around, if they meet Duke, they’ll do it without Duke’s starting point guard, Caleb Foster, who is out with injury. The Spartans have 3% odds at Kalshi (31.2x) to win the NCAA Tournament, which is a long shot, but we’ve seen them make a run like this before. They are 5.56x to make the Final Four.

Go check out why the Spittin’ Statistician wants to fade Duke as a Championship Winner…

In the 2009-10 season, MSU made the Final Four as a 5 seed, and in the 2014-15 season, they made the Final Four as a 7 seed. So, it would not be unprecedented for them to get back there again this season.

Let’s move on to the…

Sometimes you just have to go traditional with your sports wagering. The prediction markets don’t have consistent lines or consistent markets for the women’s basketball tournament, and so you have to find the juice wherever you can to squeeze. Throughout the first weekend, markets were inconsistent and/or incredibly hard to find on Kalshi and Polymarket. Shout out to Robinhood, though: they have consistently featured the women’s tournament on their markets.

Of course, UConn and South Carolina are on a collision course to play in the National Championship game — unless you think they’re going to lose — but, still, somebody has to join them in the Final Four.

LSU is trading at 45 cents and Duke is trading at 10 cents to win Region 2. They will play each other in the Sweet 16 for the right to take on the top seed in the region, UCLA, with a berth in the Final Four on the line.

Can Flau’jae Johnson and crew put another move on the brackets and give her another great song to write about their conquest? Or will Kara Lawson bring Duke to prominence again? I’m investing in both teams, because whoever comes out of that game will have a good opportunity against UCLA.

The teams that are pushing for the playoffs also have an opportunity to push for win totals. The Lakers, for instance, are 13.3x to win 55 or more games. They are currently 46-26 with 10 games remaining. They would need to win 9 of their 10 games in order to reach that mark.

Well, in six of those games, those teams will likely not be trying to win. The Lakers have the Pacers, Nets, and Wizards who are looking to set themselves up for draft pick lottery ball positioning. Then the Mavericks, Warriors, and Jazz highlight the April games that should be rather easy to win, because we don’t know how motivated they will be to rack up Ws.

That leaves four games that the Lakers have to win against stiff competition. The first is a March 31st home tilt against the Cavaliers, which would be difficult because of James Harden and Donovan Mitchell, but not a tough game to win because they are at home.

Their April slate is difficult because they have two games against the Thunder that sandwich their game against the Mavericks. They need to win one of those two games, which could be a possibility if the Thunder are just looking to rest their starters.

That leaves a difficult tilt against the Phoenix Suns in the Lakers’ second-to-last game of the season as it’s a home game. If there is still something to play for regarding seeding, I give the Lakers the nod, favoring their experience and savvy over the Suns in Phoenix.

Orunmila has spoken! Let’s go get it and have fun while you do it.