Let’s go back to 2009, when a strain of the swine flu tore through the United States beginning in mid-April. By the end of the month it was declared a U.S. public health emergency. Shortly thereafter, the World Health Organization deemed it a global health emergency. On June 11, it was officially a pandemic:

In the last 20 years there have been outbreaks of MERS, SARS, Ebola, and Zika that, while being pandemic threats — and even sometimes, like in the case of SARS, referred to as a pandemic — were never officially declared by the WHO to be a pandemic. They may have been epidemics, but to rise to “pandemic” level (at least in the world in which we currently play and live), the WHO has to see it as a pressing global threat and make an official declaration.

And that brings us to the hantavirus.

The hantavirus — or the Andes virus, as the CDC is referring to it — has been relatively contained so far, but… you never know. On one hand, we all just collectively experienced the COVID-19 pandemic, where we look back now and see a few early cases in China that were initially downplayed — and then turned into one of the deadliest outbreaks of the last 100 years. Adding to the worries is the fact that the World Cup starts exactly one month from now, bringing people and their diseases from all over the world into the United States and potentially resurfacing memories of the Atalanta-Valencia soccer game that lit a fire under COVID-19 in Italy.

On the other hand, we have WHO officials strongly saying the hantavirus is completely different in transmission, and whispering these sweet nothings into our ears:

Its chances of becoming a pandemic currently sit at 15% on Kalshi (but more on that in a moment):

…and 9% on Polymarket:

Look a little closer, however, and there’s an interesting distinction. While Polymarket has better odds if you think this mini-outbreak will turn into a pandemic, their exchange is specifically asking if the Hantavirus will be the cause of the pandemic. Kalshi, meanwhile, offers, in a sense, “the field.” The rules clearly state “any disease” has to cause a pandemic; not specifically the hantavirus:

And this is an important distinction.

There are still plenty of pandemic-causing diseases out there, including the always-threatening avian flu. And with people from all over the world coming to densely populated areas — NOT TO BE GRIM, BUT — some other stuff could pop up. In other words, Maria Van Kerkhove could be right that this particular Andes virus outbreak is just, to paraphrase her, “a cruise ship thing.” It’s diarrhea, basically! Except 30% of the people who got it have died! But with a giant event like the World Cup set to take place — and one with generally unaffordable tickets that takes place over five weeks in several cities and will see new waves of world travelers come and go each game and round — there is a decent chance something else pops up. Even if it’s minor. Even COVID could mutate itself again into something like the early strains. It’s unlikely, but that’s exactly what the numbers show: 15% chance, and that’s inflated by worried traders who had FOMO on getting in on something like Mamdani early.

And while it’s an interesting gambit to go “YES” on Kalshi (we at least know that, despite the better odds on Polymarket, casting the wide net over any disease is probably better than just sitting on the hantavirus, especially with the speed at which something can go from public health emergency to pandemic), it still seems wrong on many moral/ethical levels. Still, remain objective, we must.

So the question then becomes, outside of actually modeling the virus replication: Will there be enough sensational coverage — or even social media buzz — to think that this could go up from 15¢ to 55¢ and we can cash out?

I think it tops out at around 25%. Warning: I am not a scientist. I probably should have been, but I am not. But my read of sensational events leads me to believe that the truth on this Andes virus is somewhere in between cruise ship containment and global health crisis. The issue with COVID-19 was the sometimes week-long incubation periods; people were spreading it while feeling perfectly healthy and then it showed up days later in full force. And then it mutated and came raging back with a new set of rules. At one point we were putting nose tests in our mouths because it had supposedly switched areas of primary detection. Hantavirus is supposedly harder to spread and issues show up sooner. At least for now.

So the play here is NO PLAY. Or a smallish YES on Kalshi at 15¢ as a “real life” hedge against an actual pandemic happening. Stay inside, collect your winnings, and wonder how it all got to this point.

Here’s Spittin SPEEDZ with his take on it all:

Good luck. Godspeed. And get excited for our upcoming newsletter on the animals Trump will mention the rest of this month.