In the words of Peter Parker’s late, great Uncle Ben: “With great power comes great responsibility.” Being named an Oracle is an honor, but I’d be lying if I said it doesn’t come with pressure. There’s a real chance my words push you to invest in a market — or worse, repeat them in a room full of friends ready to throw them back in your face.
The reality is that the world shifts constantly. Somewhere, someone makes a small decision — swats a butterfly — and the direction of our lives change without us ever realizing it.
Uncertainty is the only thing we can truly count on.
I can live with being wrong when it only affects me. But now that you’re involved, I considered playing it safe — doing the research, running the numbers, building airtight logic before every call. After all, it’s your hard-earned money.
But then the butterfly floats back into my head. What if we’re one swat away from the improbable? What if the outcome ends up exactly where my gut said it would from the start? That’s the part I wouldn’t be able to live with. What’s the point of being an Oracle if I ignore instinct in favor of endless research? I won’t do it.
Too many times I’ve overthought something and muttered, “Should’ve gone with your gut.” That ends here. Predictive markets reward life’s WTF Moments. And we’re living in a golden age of WTF Moments. I live in left field — and I’m staying there.
I’m not asking you to follow me blindly. Every prediction will come with logic. You decide whether to ride with me. The only promise I’ll make is that I’ll be right there for the wins and the losses. When the obvious happens, we may lose. But when the ridiculous happens — when life happens — we’ll celebrate quietly and act like we saw it coming all along publicly.
So this is my commitment: I’m going with my gut.
When life becomes a roulette wheel and red and black feel like the only options, I’m going green. No stats. Just vibes.
Now that you know the philosophy, here are a few gut-check predictions to start us off. In the future, look out for predictions from the worlds of UFC, NFL, Culture (politics, current events, award season), Tennis, NBA & More
Three Markets My Gut Currently Loves
Victor Wembanyama to record a Quadruple Double this season (YES 8¢)
Barack Obama recently said on a podcast that aliens are real. I genuinely think thats the only thing Wemby was waiting for to show us the full scale of his powers. He is now unleashed.
Carlos Alcarez to win 3+ Grand Slams in 2026 (48¢ yes)
It’s never a bad idea to ride with the best tennis player in the world. And despite what Jannik Sinner may say about that, that person right now is Carlitos. He just won his first Australian Open, the only Grand Slam to elude him to this point —and it seems like being publicly called out by Nick Kyrgios for having too active of a social life unlocked a different version of him. He already has the one he’d never won in the bag… giving me odds for him to win 2 more? Yes please. I actually don’t even hate him winning all 4 at +775.
Leo DiCaprio to win the Academy Award for Best Actor In A Leading Role (4¢ YES)
Remember how long Leo had to wait for his first Oscar? He went from the bow of the Titanic, to the diamond mines of South Africa, to going undercover for Frank Costello’s Southie gang- it literally took sleeping in a dead bear and eating its fat to get his first. Fast forward to Timothée Chalamet, he seems to be he overwhelming favorite for his role in Marty Supreme; he’s made his ambitions on chasing greatness known. It seems like the perfect table-turning moment for Leo.
For Your Eyes
A case for some Survivor 50 longshot markets from the Spittin’ Statistician: